Speaking against a backdrop of record-high gold and silver prices, Fabi Lara, creator of the Next Big Rush, delivered a timely reality check at this year’s Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.
Addressing a packed room that included a noticeable influx of first-time attendees, she urged investors to balance excitement with discipline as the commodities bull market accelerates.
Lara framed her talk around advice she would give her daughter based on hard-earned lessons from more than a decade in the resource sector, including surviving long stretches of disappointment before a surge.
“What we’re going through this year is not normal,” she said. “We’re not usually this fat and happy and joyful. This is completely outside of what the last number of years have been.”
Lara, often dubbed the “uranium girl” for her early conviction in the sector’s 2021 to 2022 rally, drew parallels between uranium’s past run and current moves in the gold and silver market.
Prices, she warned, are rising so fast that even seasoned investors are uneasy.
“The price is moving too quickly,” she said, noting that her presentation charts were outdated almost as soon as they were prepared. “That’s how quickly this market is moving.”
During the conference, which ran from January 25 to 26, gold breached US$5,000 per ounce, while silver reached triple digits, continuing on even higher as the week continued. Ultimately, those high levels proved as unsustainable as Lara anticipated — by Monday (February 2) gold was sitting in the US$4,600 range, while silver was at US$79.
What stage is the market in?
While some investors see parabolic prices as a signal to exit entirely, Lara cautioned against all-or-nothing thinking. Instead, she emphasized understanding where the market sits within the broader arc of a bull cycle.
Referencing Doug Casey’s framework, she outlined three phases: the stealth stage, the wall of worry and the mania.
In her view, today’s market sits uncomfortably between the latter two.
“Some people think we’re already in mania because of the price,” Lara said. “I don’t think we’re quite there yet.”
She pointed to lagging indicators, including subdued valuations across the TSX Venture Exchange and conservative assumptions in mining feasibility studies, as signs that the cycle still has room to run.
That said, Lara acknowledged the risks of complacency.
She recounted stories of investors who rode bull markets too long, only to find “no bids” when they tried to exit. Her solution: gradual repositioning. “Don’t wait too long,” she said. “Start to leave your positions slowly.”
For her own portfolio — and hypothetically, for her daughter’s — Lara favors selling in thirds rather than making dramatic moves. Trimming positions can relieve pressure without sacrificing exposure to further upside. Fully exiting, she warned, risks missing the very payoff investors have waited years to see.
Equally important is what happens after selling. Holding large amounts of cash, Lara admitted, doesn’t suit every personality, especially active speculators.
To impose discipline, she has redirected some profits into dividend-paying oil stocks held in a separate account. “You get paid to wait,” she said, calling oil historically cheap by multiple measures.
Beyond precious metals, Lara highlighted emerging areas of interest among veteran investors.
Copper is getting increasing attention, and will likely receive more if prices stay stable. Nickel remains overlooked, while oil continues to offer a combination of value and income that contrasts sharply with the volatility of junior miners.
Ultimately, Lara framed successful investing as a psychological exercise as much as an analytical one.
“Doing this well is a result of greed and fear,” she said. “In a bear market, you need to be greedy. In a bull market, you need to be somewhat fearful.”
Her closing message for newcomers and longtime investors: participate, but don’t lose perspective. Bull markets reward patience and punish excess.
“We’re all salespeople, including me,” Lara reminded the audience. “So don’t believe everything you hear.”
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
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