This once-hyped QB could be headed for a crash in NFL draft

• Drew Allar was once considered a potential top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
• After a season-ending ankle injury, however, the QB’s stock could be headed for a major downswing.
• Developmental QBs in the NFL draft can have a hard time latching on, and Allar might have a longer wait than anticipated.

Excitement about Drew Allar has long necessitated a bit of imagination.

That’s not to say optimism about the Penn State quarterback was ever unfounded. At 6-5 and 235 pounds with superlative arm strength and surprising mobility for a player his size, the former five-star recruit sparked visions of a playmaker comfortable dealing deep downfield from either the pocket or on the move. Things started to come together in the early portion of a 2024 campaign in which the junior signal-caller helped the Nittany Lions reach the College Football Playoff semifinal, completing 66.5% of his passes for 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions along the way.

Having eschewed the NFL draft to return to a loaded Penn State roster, Allar became a fixture of way-too-early mock drafts and preseason prospect big boards. It was only natural for others to jump ahead in projecting how far his skill set might take him if he made another leap in his development.

Could the Medina, Ohio, native be the savior of the hometown Cleveland Browns? Or might he break the New York Jets or New Orleans Saints out of their quarterback stasis? Perhaps he could learn under Matthew Stafford before taking over for a playoff-caliber Los Angeles Rams group. Or maybe he could serve as Aaron Rodgers’ successor for the Pittsburgh Steelers and conjure up Ben Roethlisberger comparisons thanks to his burly frame.

Regardless of where his play actually positioned him, numerous possibilities for a more prosperous future always seemed to be right at Allar’s feet. Now, however, the avenues for him to make good on his considerable potential have been cut off, with since-fired coach James Franklin revealing Saturday that Allar had suffered a season-ending injury, later revealed to be an ankle issue that would require surgery.

Suddenly, a player who once seemed like a good bet for the first round now faces a particularly perilous pro projection, with his spiraling draft stock potentially leaving him in the no-man’s land that has emerged for several players like him in recent years.

Penn State had plenty of problems in its multifaceted failure of a season, including a remade receiving corps not stepping up for the passing attack. But Allar also regressed at a time when the offense needed him to be the catalyst he had not truly served as is in previous years. His yards per attempt sank from 8.4 in 2024 to 6.9 this season. His ill-advised interception in double overtime against Oregon launched a three-game losing streak, with another bewildering pick against Northwestern accelerating the Nittany Lions’ slide.

For all those woes, however, it would be inaccurate and unfair to portray Allar as the gunslinger many assume him to be given his stature and powerful arm. To his credit, the quarterback set a Football Subdivision Record by opening his collegiate career with 311 passing attempts before throwing his first pick. His 1.3% interception rate is the lowest in school history.

And after the season opener against Florida International, Franklin indicated that Allar was actually dwelling too much on mistakes rather than embracing a let-it-rip mentality.

‘I think a couple times that happened where you miss a really easy throw that he makes 99.9% of the time and that frustrates you,’ Franklin said. ‘And if you’re not careful, that will linger.’

Of course, Franklin’s characterization was awfully charitable for a player who admitted he had trouble ‘making the easy throws easy.’ Allar completed more than 60% of his attempts in just one of his first five games, with the erratic ball placement and spotty mechanics that have dogged his career continuing to resurface. Short throws and quick hits that were routine for his peers were hardly guarantees for him.

But for all the problems Allar exhibited through six games, his 2025 campaign may go down as a greater disappointment due to missed opportunities. He won’t be able to answer for wilting performances in big games, finishing with an 0-6 record against teams with a top-six ranking. His struggles to rise to the moment when he was needed most were underscored by those matchups producing five of his 13 career interceptions, including a last-minute pick in the College Fooball Playoff semifinal that set Notre Dame up for a game-winning field goal.

It’s reasonable to ask, though, whether any of those shortcomings are disqualifying as they relate to Allar’s NFL draft stock. In a process that has permitted physically gifted passers a good deal of leeway in evaluations, shouldn’t a player of his tools be in high demand despite those performance concerns?

Maybe in another era.

The NFL world Allar is entering into is demanding more efficiency from quarterbacks while downfield passes dwindle. That doesn’t bode well for a player who has struggled to process quickly and respond to pressure, especially with star tigh end Tyler Warren no longer around to bail him out from troublesome spots this season.

And while teams have looked past the underwhelming college performances from the likes of Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson, among others, Allar can’t claim a comparable level of otherworldly athleticism or creativity.

With his lackluster showing this season, Allar likely has been leapfrogged by several potential 2026 quarterback prospects – including Oregon’s Dante Moore, Alabama’s Ty Simpson and Oklahoma’s John Mateer – while remaining far behind several more. But perhaps even more problematic for him is that the middle rounds of the draft have become somewhat of a wasteland for developmental signal-callers. As Shedeur Sanders learned in April, if a passer isn’t considered a potential starter in the near future, his wait might be far longer than anyone might have anticipated.

In the last two years, only two quarterbacks have been taken between the middle of the second round and the end of the fourth: Jalen Milroe and Dillon Gabriel. The former offered rare dual-threat ability that led Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald to plan a special package of plays for him, while the latter was a highly refined FBS record-holder for games started (63) who afforded the Cleveland Browns a degree of stability as they figured out a complex outlook at the position.

Allar is stuck somewhere in between those two. His physical tools don’t give him the same tantalizing upside as Milroe, but he might not be able to lock down a backup job in the same way Gabriel did. And that could lead to quite the tumble on draft day.

The worrisome reference point for Allar is Quinn Ewers, who preceded him as the top-ranked quarterback in the 2021 recruiting class. As a fellow three-year starter for a high-powered program who also led his team to the College Football Playoff semifinal, Ewers also generated a good deal of interest as a player who could rise up draft boards if his development took off in his final campaign. But his mechanics continued to take a back seat to his arm strength, and his college career remained plagued by overall inconsistency.

The result in the NFL draft: Despite many considering him a potential mid-round pick, he lasted all the way to the seventh, where he was eventually scooped up by the Miami Dolphins.

Maybe Allar’s fall won’t be that precipitous. If he’s healed in time for the pre-draft process, he could have the opportunity to showcase himself and hook the interest of a team that sees him as a potential future starter. As he wraps his collegiate career, he does so with a decorated résumé and more than a few backers.

‘Drew’s one hell of a young man,’ Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft said Monday, getting emotional while recapping the quarterback’s tenure. ‘He puts up with a lot of crap, and I get it. The NIL era, and he’s still a kid. There’s not a negative word that comes up when I think of Drew.’

It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Allar to become the ‘incredible pro football player’ Kraft said he was sure the quarterback would one day be. Envisioning just might entail a good deal of imagination and patience – and the NFL might be short on both for him.